Influenza-like illness

CRITICAL

Casablanca-SettatICD-10 J11Detected: 07 May 2026, 06:12 UTC

Z-SCORE

3.8

standard deviations above baseline

CONFIDENCE

89%

model certainty score

DETECTION LEAD

-9d

days ahead of clinical reports

PHARMACIES TRIGGERED

247

of 3,200 in region

SIGNAL TIME SERIES — 12 WEEKS

Drug Proxy (Beacon Signal)

Confirmed Cases (lagged)

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DRUG BASKET FINGERPRINT

Signal contribution by drug class

Ephedrine52%

Antitussive31%

Paracetamol17%

PROXY DRUGS

EphedrineAntitussiveParacetamol

Regional Alert — Casablanca-Settat

The PANOPTES Beacon has detected a statistically significant anomaly in drug purchasing patterns across 247 pharmacies in the Casablanca-Settat region. The signal is consistent with early-stage Influenza-like illness (J11), with a z-score of 3.8 and model confidence of 89%. This signal leads clinical reporting by approximately 9 days, providing an early-warning window for public health response.

PEAK PROJECTION

16 Jul 2026

Estimated outbreak peak based on proxy signal trajectory

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL±3 days

RESPONSE WINDOW9 days remaining